June 4th, 2025 1942 - Battle of Midway (through 07 June)

Politics - Putin rejects personal meeting

- Zelenskyy rejects Russian Memorandum

- Kellogg refers to strike as “escalation”

Combat Ops - Gains north of Sumy

- Kerch Bridge open for traffic

Weather

Kharkiv

71 and sunny, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

80 and partly cloudy, gusting to 25. Mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

75 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy for the next five days, but scattered thunderstorms possible every day. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Putin rejected an offer of a meeting between himself and President Zelenskyy, rejected a 30 day ceasefire, calling the Ukrainian government “terrorists,” and commented that “No one is talking to terrorists.”

Russian ForMin Lavrov commented that ‘Russia has not been drawn into escalation’ following Kyiv’s “provocations.”

Russian ForMin spokeswoman Zakharova said that the West was involved, both directly and indirectly, in Ukrainian “terrorist attacks.”

President Zelenskyy this afternoon described Russia’s Memorandum as an ultimatum that left no room for compromises.

"Putin told Trump it would be doable. They understand it is not doable, even if they want it."

"Regarding NATO, we have clearly stated that besides it being enshrined in our Constitution, this issue depends on the allies – all NATO members.”

Special Envoy Kellogg commented on the Ukrainian strike on Russian airfields as an escalation.

"When you attack part of the national survival system of the enemy, which is their triad, it means that your risk level increases because you don't know what the other side is going to do. You're not sure, and that's what they actually did... I think that's what we're trying to avoid. We wouldn't want to get to that point.”

He added that the risk of escalation is “going way up.”

"This operation was a serious blow to the image. It showed that Ukraine is not going to give up. Ukraine, in essence, says: "We can play this game too.”

SecDef Hegseth won’t attend a meeting of 50 defense ministers at NATO HQ this week, the first time in more than 3 years the US SecDef has not attended the meeting.

Pentagon spokesman Wilson noted:

”Secretary Hegseth's travel schedule does not allow him to participate in tomorrow's UDCG (Ukraine Defense Contact Group - ed.) meeting. The United States is focused on ending the war in Ukraine as soon as possible on terms that ensure lasting peace.”

Ground Operations 

Ukrainian General Officer moves:

Ground Forces Commander Major General Drapatyi named Commander, Joint Forces Command (Joint Forces Commander has been vacant since February 26th)

Brigadier General Apostol as Commander, Air Assault Forces 

Major General Skybiuk as Deputy Chief of the General Staff

Major Brovdi as Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces

Colonel Sukharevskyi as Deputy Commander of Operational Command East

 SUMY AND KHARKLIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city, and just across the border into Kursk oblast, and Ukrainian forces gained ground just east of the Russian town of Tetkino, north-west of Sumy.

Due north of Sumy Russian forces appear to have taken the villages of Andriivka and Vodolahy. Ukrainian forces were trying to maintain a toe-hold on the southern edge of Andriivka but have been pushed back. A Ukrainian element had held Vodolahy after being encircled, but they now appear to have been overrun. Both of these are very small villages, each probably with less than 200 people - before the war came to their doorsteps.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, along the border and in Vovchansk, but there were no changes in the front lines.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along the entire line of contact. Of note, artillery barrages were reported near Ukrainian border positions and small towns along the Russian border, north of the Oskil river (north-west from the small village of Stroivka).

South of Kupyansk there were no changes in the front line but there were reports of fighting in or near 8 towns in the area between Terny and the Oskil river, and fighting was once again reported in the Serebrianske forest.

THE CENTER: BAKHMUT AND DONETSK

North and north-east of Bakhmut heavy fighting has been reported with Russian claims of gains north and east of Siversk, but these claims haven’t been confirmed.

West of Bakhmut, fighting continues just south of Chasiv war, but there were, again, no confirmed changes in the front line.

Fighting continues around Toretsk, with engagements reported in multiple locations but there were no confirmed gains. Of note, there are claims of Russian gains in Yablunivka and further gains south of Rusyn Yar and Poltavka, reflective of Russian efforts to squeeze the pocket between south-east of Kostiantinivka. 

East of Pokrovsk and south of the T0504 roadway, Russian forces in the Malynivka area are pushing west ward along the roadway, as other forces from the south, push north and west, trying to close the pocket east of Pokrovsk.

Elsewhere in the Pokrovsk area and just east of Pokrovsk, Russian forces were engaged in at least 9 towns but there were no changes in the front lines.

South-west and south of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to assault multiple towns, with attacks noted in at least 7 towns in that area, and gains possible in the two small towns (Kotlyarivka and Horikhove) just east of Novopavlivka.

  South of the Vovcha River, Russian forces have pushed westward along the T0518 Roadway and have pushed past Odradne and are about 3 miles east of Komar. Russian forces also appear to have pushed into northern Bahatyr and may control that entire town.

Fighting continues along the Novopil - Vesele line, with no changes noted. 

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Stepove - Shcherbaky line, west of Orikhiv, but there were no reported changes in the front lines.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 3rd-June 4th Russian forces launched least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 95 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 36 drones, and 25 were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv,  Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

RuAF tacair struck 15 Ukrainian towns again last night.

During the night of  June 2nd-June 3rd Russian forces launched 112 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 60 drones, and 15 were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia Oblast but reports are not complete.

RuAF tacair struck 15 Ukrainian towns last night.

UAF Spokesman Col. Ihnat commented Russian tacair forces are increasing the number of strikes per day in Sumy Oblast, describing it as a “scorched-earth tactic.”

Special Operations

Russian authorities report that the Kerch Bridge is open for traffic, so, apparently, the 2200lb (1100KG) charge failed to cause significant damage. 

BDA (“Bomb Damage Assessment) of the drone strike on Russian bombers continues to filter in. The New York Times is reporting that yesterday “Western Officials” that the attack damaged or destroyed 6 x TU-95 Bears, 4 x TU-22 Backfires, 1 x A-50 Mainstay (AEW). “Frontelligence Insight” assesses “11 damaged or destroyed" bombers and 1 x An-12 transport. 

Meanwhile NATO officials commented:

"We see that at least 40 aircraft were damaged. Between 10 and 13 aircraft were completely destroyed.”

The NATO official listed damaged or destroyed as 15 x Tu-95 Bears, 20 x Tu-22 Backfire, and 1 x A-50 Mainstay aircraft.

Meanwhile Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia has more than 13,000 ballistic, cruise, and other missiles, to include (parentheses is monthly production):

-  600 Iskander ballistic missiles (60 - 70)

• 100+ Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles (10 - 15)
• 300 Kh-101 cruise missiles (20 - 30)
• 400 Kalibr cruise missiles (25 - 30)
• 300 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles (10)
• 700 Oniks / Zirkon anti-ship missiles (20 - 30)
• 60 North Korean-produced KN-23 ballistic missiles
• 11,000 S-300/400 air defense missiles

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun3 Jun4

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.28 65.83

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 63.31 63.84

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.72

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.40 5.39

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 78.86 79.44

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.54 41.55

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 57.16 60.60

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.23 63.23

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 59.92 60.56

France and Belgium are not supporting the EU plan - just released in May - to end natural gas imports from Russia by December 2027.

French Energy Minister Marc Ferracci:

"We defend the European diversification strategy, which is already on the table.”

France’s plan is to eventually replace Russian supplies with gas from Qatar.

Belgium meanwhile said it would not support the plan until there is a report that details the economic consequences and only then will it be prepared to make a decision.

Thoughts 

It appears that Russia is, at least initially, waiting for a full assessment of the impact of Sunday’s drone strike before responding. Presumably, that includes Putin and the Kremlin getting a full assessment of how Russians are viewing the strike, has the strike weakened his position with Russians or are they demanding some sort of strong response or is there some sort of “middle ground.”

Meanwhile, certainly in part due to deliberately subdued coverage inside Russia, anecdotal reporting from “the street” in Moscow and elsewhere suggests no ground swell to “destroy Ukraine now” or, on the other hand to attack Putin, though there apparently have been comments on talk shows that poke at some senior generals.

Presumably, Putin and his generals are also engaged in some planning to see what new they are capable of, 3 years into the war.

v/r pete