June 12th, 2025

Politics - SecDef - Reduced Ukrainian funding in 2026

Combat Ops - More Russian gains west of Toretsk

- Air strikes continue - both sides

Weather

Kharkiv

69 and rain showers, gusting to 20. Rain and scattered thunderstorms through Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 60s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

76 and sunny, gusting over 20. Partly cloudy for the next week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

64 in rain, gusting to 40. Rain and thunderstorms through Saturday, then partly cloudy for a week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the upper  60s to 70s. Winds north-westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

SecDef Hegseth said at a Congressional hearing that the US intends to reduce weapons purchases for Ukraine in 2026, but did not provide details.

As noted yesterday, the bodes of 1,212 Ukrainian soldiers were turned over to Ukrainian authorities yesterday. The bodies of 27 Russian soldiers were provided in exchange. An explanation of the disparity has not been explained by either side.

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Fico stated yesterday that Slovakia will not support the EU’s 18th sanctions package unless the EU provides some solution to Slovkia’s loss of energy from Russia.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues in the Tetkino area in Kursk oblast, north-west of Sumy City. The Russian forces appear to have retaken most of the terrain initially grabbed in the Ukrainian incursion, but there appear to be several Ukrainian elements remaining inside Russia, probably not quite a battalion in size, with apparently one element holding a water treatment plant just outside of Tetkino.

North and north-east of Sumy (inside Ukraine) Russian forces continue operations and there are unconfirmed reports of small gains in several areas; the operations are small probes and deliberate movements to take land and establish a buffer zone. Presumably, there will be Russian engineering units moved into this area (should be there already) to begin building defensive lines, but I have not seen any reports on that yet. 

There were no changes noted due north of Kharkiv.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting was reported along virtually the entire length of the line of contact, with activity reported in or near 12 different towns, but the only change in the front lines appears to have taken place in the area of Lozova, north-east of Borova, where Ukrainian forces moved up a tree line and recaptured some firing positions just north-west of the town.

BAKHMUT AND DONETSK 

North of Bakhmut fighting was reported north-east of Siversk along the Donets River, but there were no changes in the front line.

West of Bakhmut, Russian forces had confirmed gains immediately north of Chasiv Yar, pushing further into the Severny mines north of the town, a fight that has been going on for almost 6 weeks. The terrain around the mine is all broken terrain, ditches, mounds of scrap rock, etc., and even with drones is going to be a very painful place to fight.

Russian forces had small gains north and north-east of Toretsk and fighting was also reported near Bila Hora, between Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

West of Toretsk Russian forces continued to press north and north-west in and around the pocket between Toretsk and the T0504 roadway. Even conservative Ukrainian web sites are showing Russian gains north of Romanivka, as well as just south of Popiv Yar and Rusyn Yar. Slightly less conservative, but still pro Ukrainian sites show Russian forces pushing into west and central Yablunivka, and Russian forces less than a mile-and-a-half from the west end of the Kleban Byk Reservoir, and there is now appears to be only a single road - the H20 roadway - that provides an exit from the pocket. 

Further west around Pokrovsk, Russian forces gained ground about 8 miles east of Pokrovsk, on the west end of Malynivka, straddling and just south of the T0504 roadway. Russian forces also had confirmed gains along the Solana River, near Muravka, and further south, near the Dnipropetrosk oblast border, south-west of Bohdanivka.

Fighting was also reported 14 towns in the Pokrovsk salient.

Fighting contuse along the Vovcha river, west of Oleksiivka, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues along the Komar - Vesele - Novopil line, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. While Russian forces have not pressed west of Oleksiivka on the north side of the Vovcha River, it appears that forces south of the river are now opposite the small town of Dachne, and are pressing on the small town of  Zaporizhzhia (not to be confused with the city of the same name).

There were no gains noted along the line of contact in the general Orikhiv area, but multiple reports of Russian special operations elements operating on the west side of the Dnepr River in the vicinity of the Antonovskiy Bridge, a few miles up river from Kherson.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 11th-June 12th Russian forces launched 63 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 28 drones, and 21 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage has been reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 17 towns.

During the night of  June 10th-June 11th Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 85 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 49 drones, and 8 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage has been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.

Ukrainian drones struck the Tambov Gunpowder plant In Kotovsk (about 225 miles south-east of Moscow), and the Buturlinovka Airfield, near Voronezh (about 300 miles south-east of Moscow). The gunpowder plant is reportedly still burning. 

There is no operational squadron permanently stationed at Buturlinovka airfield but it has been used as a deployment field for various squadrons supporting the war.

Russian air defense claimed they shot down 32 drones last night.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun11 Jun12

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 67.98 68.08

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 66.24 67.20

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.55 3.59

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.36 5.35

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 79.49 80.15

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.56 41.39

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 63.20 63.37

ESPO N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 65.37 65.37

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 62.05 64.25

Thoughts

President Putin commented in a speech last night that the Russian nuclear force is “95% fully up to date” while at the same time Russia’s Deputy ForMin Ryabkov stated that the Russia nuclear bomber force did not suffer significant damage, and that earlier reports had been exaggerated.

In short, they are saying that there is no change in the nuclear posture and Putin is now free to respond in any way he likes, that Russia’s nuclear credentials remain unchanged.

Whether this is accurate or not remains to be seen. Russia’s nuclear bomber force (52 TU-95 Bears are counted, and 15 TU-160 Blackjacks) remains of marginal consequence when compared to their ICBMs and SLBMs. And Putin’s claim is that the rest of the forces are modernized. Russia also has other nuclear capable aircraft - Backfires and various tactical strike aircraft, more than enough to carry out any tasking should the need arise. This would seem to be an effort to place this embarrassment behind him.

v/r pete