June 19th, 2025

Politics - Putin and Xi talking 

- Zelenskyy to NATO summit next week (24-25 June)

Combat Ops - More Russian gains north and west of Toretsk

- Russian gains near Dnipropetrovsk border

Weather

Kharkiv

73 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Mostly cloudy through Tuesday, rain showers Friday, and then Sunday night and into Monday. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds westerly, 5-15kts.

Melitopol

79 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly cloudy to sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

66 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Mostly cloudy through Tuesday, rain showers tonight, Sunday and Tuesday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 60s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Putin talked with President Xi of China, discussed Israel and the situation in Iran, and agreed to meet between August 31st and September 3rd in China:

"Both sides have adopted identical approaches and strongly condemn Israel's actions, which violate the UN Charter and other norms of international law. Moscow and Beijing fundamentally believe that the current situation and issues related to Iran's nuclear program cannot be resolved by force... but must be resolved solely through political and diplomatic means.”

President Zelenskyy has reportedly decided to attend the NATO Summit next week in the Hague (24-25 June).

Canada announced it will proved C$2 billion ($1.45 billion) to Ukraine for the purchase of helicopters, drones, armored vehicles and ammo, and provide a loan of C$2.3 billion ($1.7 billion) for reconstruction of critical infrastructure; the loan is being financed from profits from seized Russian assets.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting was reported at multiple sites north of Sumy City and near Tetkino; imagery confirms Russian advances westward from the small village of Kostiantinivka, on the border (about 15 miles) due north of Sumy City, as the Russians attempt to push their “buffer zone” further west.

North of Kharkiv, imagery showed Russian forces in Vovchansk have pushed back into the aggregate plant in northern Vovchansk.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along the length of the line of contact; Russian sources had multiple claims of gains of territory but there were no changes noted in the front lines.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - DONETSK CITY

  North of Bakhmut fighting continues just east of Serebryanska on the south bank of the Donets River, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

West of Bakhmut, Russian forces continue to slowly push westward from Chasiv Yar, and imagery confirmed that they have pushed into Stupochky (immediately south-west of Chasiv Yar) and appear to control most of the town, and there are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces closing on Bila Hora.

North of Toretsk Russian forces continue to push north-west through both Dyliivka’s (there are two small village - with the same name, abut 2 miles apart, one had a population of perhaps 200, the smaller one less than 100, both are now certainly much less than that). Russian forces also appear to have taken Dachne, just south-east of the more southern Dyliivka)

Taken together with the movement into Stuposhky, just south-west of Chasiv Yar, and actions near Bila Hora, Russian forces appear to taking steps to close up the pocket between Toretsk and Chasiv Yar.

Meanwhile, west of Toretsk Russian forces continue to apply pressure on Yablunivka and Katerynivka, squeezing the pocket south of the Kleban Byk Reservoir.

Fighting was also reported west of the T-0504 roadway, with Russian forces striking into Popiv Yar, Poltavka and Rusyn Yar, just west of the roadway.

Fighting continues along the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient, with Russian assaults noted in or near 14 different towns, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. To the south-west of Pokrovsk, along the Solana River just outside of Muravka, and southward from there along the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk oblast border, fighting continues but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River Russian forces remain on the edge of the small town of Zaporizhia, and from there southward through Perebudova, west of Fedorivka, and south to Burlatske and from there to Novopil, but there were no changes in either area or further west across southern Ukraine, all the way to the Dnepr River.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 18th-June 19th Russian forces launched 104 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 40 drones and 48 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).

Damage and casualties have been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Casualties include at least 2 killed and 5 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 7 towns.

During the night of  June 17th-June 18th Russian forces launched several S-300 missiles and 58 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 12 drones and 18 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage and casualties have been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv,  Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Casualties include at least 1 killed and 3 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck 15 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun18 Jun19

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 75.57 78.10

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 74.06 76.90

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15    3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.98 4.04

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17     5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.87 5.74

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.24 78.42

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.70 41.84

Urals 56.56    68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 71.17 71.44

ESPO N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 78.45 78.70

Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 69.52 70.56

Price for ESPO oil is a report of a spot price offered for ESPO oil in Shandong, China today. 

Thoughts

Russian forces continue to reinforce ground operations west of Donetsk City: in the vicinity of Toretsk and west to Pokrovsk and south to, and just over, the Vovcha River. The fighting has been described by Ukrainian army spokesmen as “intense.”

Several key pieces of geography are driving the current fight: the Solana River, the Mokri Yali River to the south, and the Vovcha, which runs between the two.

The Solana arcs down from just west of Pokrovsk to the Vovcha and creates a natural pocket that straddles the Dnipropetrovsk - Donetsk border, the Mokri Yali comes up from the south and flows into the Vovcha, and just west of the small town of Zaporizhia. These two natural pockets are seen by the Russians as an opportunity to trap two Ukrainian forces, with the resultant Ukrainian losses (the Russian plan), and then access to open terrain in eastern Dnipropetrovsk. 

Reporting is a bit blurred here with some suggesting that Russian forces are still trying to push westward from area of Zelenyi Kut, others that they have already pressed through Zelenyi Kut and are moving westward, pushing into the northern pocket.

There is also reporting that suggests that Russian forces have pushed west from Troitske, through Horikhve and are across the border , and others that Russian forces along the Solana have control of most or possibly all of Novomykolaivka and Muravka and have pressed further westward, along the Solana River, and conducted recon into the area immediately east of the town of Novopavlivka (Dnipropetrovsk oblast, a town of abbot 3,500 before the war).

The Russian aim is to close up these pockets quickly, and then move on into Dnipropetrovsk. Eastern Dnipropetrovsk is less densely populated than Donetsk, and there are fewer Ukrainian defensive positions. Russian forces see this as an opportunity to get into open territory and push north and isolate Pokrovsk as well as western Donetsk province.

Ukraine must hold at those rivers, while building defenses in depth across Dnipropetrovsk, then withdraw. Russia will want to move quickly enough that Ukrainian forces will reinforce, rather than withdraw, then the Russians will focus on encircling a larger numbers of Ukrainian and then reducing that force.

v/r pete