June 9th, 2025

Politics - Prisoner Swap

- Israeli Patriot battery transferred 

Combat Ops - Lots of air activity

- Russian ground forces - In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast  

Weather

Kharkiv

94 and sunny, gusting to 25. Partly cloudy through Thursday, then 3 days of rain showers. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

95 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy to sunny all week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

70 and mostly cloudy. Sunny on Tuesday followed by 4 days of rain showers. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs near 70. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

An Israeli Patriot battery has been transferred to Ukraine.

As I am writing this the 66th prisoner exchange is nearly completed, with a group of prisoner under the age of 25 being transferred, as well as some severely wounded prisoners. Many had been POWs for 3 years. The exchange was agreed to in the meetings in Istanbul last week, with a total of 1200 POWs to be transferred by each country. 

Meanwhile, there are accusations and counter-accusations that each side is “playing games” with he exchange.

LTGEN Budanov, Director of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, commented that

“The start of repatriation activities based on results and negotiations in Istanbul is scheduled for next week, as authorised persons on Tuesday were informed.”

“Everything is moving according to plan, despite the enemy’s dirty information game.”

“We are carefully adhering to the agreements reached in Istanbul.”

Russia also announced the it had moved the bodies of more than 1,000 Ukrainian KIA to the exchange point, plus the names of 640 POWS, to the exchange point but insisted that the Ukrainians were not present to receive the list or bodies.

Ground Operations 

THE RUSSIAN CENTER - BAKHMUT AND DONETSK CITY

Russian forces south-west of Pokrovsk continued slowly grinding west and on Saturday appear to have crossed the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders, though this has not been confirmed in imagery; the Russian MOD asserts it is true, the Ukrainian spokesman for a local brigade says the Russians have not crossed that border. The Russian units in the area, elements of the 90th Tank division, are operating on a front about 5 - 6 miles across (north to south) that stretches from roughly the Solona River to the town of Horikhove, with the first push into Dnipropetrovsk taking place just west of Horikhove. Other imagery shows artillery fire along the border. Whether they have crossed or not, fighting continues in the area.

Which units are actually involved isn’t clear but there are 2 tank regiments and a motorized rifle brigade attached to the 90th, and there is and a motorized rifle regiment and a mechanized brigade also in the area, reportedly operating independently.

This is all open, manicured farmland, with one paved road on the north end (just south the Solona River, and then a series of dirt roads that edge each open field.

The Solona River bends to the south and flows into the Vovcha River about 10 miles west of Oleksiivka, creating a pocket which the Russian army will now try to close - and the Ukrainians will try to hold.

West of Toretsk, Russian forces gained ground along he west side of the town of Yablunivka (east of the T-0504 roadway), appear to have firm control of the town of Zorya (west of Romanivka, and are pushing north form that position towards the east end of Yablunivka. West of T0504 roadway Russian forces may have made marginal gains pushing north along that road, and to the immediate west of that road.

At the same time, it appears some additional Ukrainian forces have moved into the area just south of Yablunivka as a blocking force.

Elsewhere in the center, fighting continues north of Bakhmut and west of Chasiv

 Yar but there were no changes to the front line. Artillery fire in Chasiv Yar has reportedly increased over the past few days and the Ukrainian forces assert that the Russians are trying to reduce the town to rubble. (Frankly, the last pictures of Chasiv Yar that I saw were from several months ago and it already was pretty much rubble. As the Russians control the whole town, and there have been no reports of small units (Ukrainian units) sneaking into the town, this strikes me as odd; I’ll see what I can find out).

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the border and just inside Russia, just east of Tetkino (north-west of Sumy), but there were no changes in the front lines. Russian forces reportedly are still having resupply problems in this area due to Ukrainian sabotage of two railroad bridges last week. There were no reported changes in the front lines in Sumy Oblast or north of Kharkiv city.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along the entire front line but there were no confirmed changes reported, and few if any claimed gains of terrain.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Further south, in the vicinity of Toretsk, Russian forces made marginal advances just north-west of Toretsk.

Elsewhere south of Pokrovsk Russian forces picked up ground just south of Pokrovsk in the town of Shevchenko, and fighting was reported in 13 other towns east and immediately south-west of Pokrovsk. 

Elsewhere south of Pokrovsk and across southern Ukraine fighting continues across the line of contact but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Air Operations

During the night of  June 8th-June 9th Russian forces launched least 4 x Kinzhal ballast missiles, 10 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 2 x Kh-31P cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-35 cruise missile, 3 x Kh-22 cruise missiles, and 479 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace, a total of 499 inbound missiles of all types. The UAF claimed it shot down 277 drones, and 188 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW), and initially claimed that it had shot down all the other missiles except 1 Kh-35. 

Later reporting suggests that 4 Kinzhals were not intercepted and some reporting suggests that at least 2 more Kinzhals were fired, with 4 launched in the general Kyiv area and 2 into Rivne. Damage was reported in Mykolaiv and Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Rivne, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

RuAF tacair struck 6 towns.

During the night of  June 7th-June 8th Russian forces launched 1 x Onyx cruise missile, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 49 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 22 drones, and 18 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 19 Ukrainian towns again last night.

During the night of  June 6th-June 7th Russian forces launched least 2 x Iskander ballistic missile, 6 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 1 x Iskander cruise missiles, and 206 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down all 7 cruise missiles, and 87 drones, and 80 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). 

Later reports suggested that Russian forces launched 6 vice 2 Iskander ballistic missiles, and that the ballistic missies were not intercepted. Damage was reported in Dnipro, Kharkiv and Odessa oblasts.

RuAF tamari struck 11 towns on the 7th.

During the night of  June 5th-June 6th Russian forces launched least 6 x Iskander ballistic missile, 36 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 2 x Iskander cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-31P cruise missiles and 407 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 4 ballistic missiles, 32 cruise missiles, and 199 drones, and 169 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW). In addition, they reported that 2 ballistic missiles "crashed." Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Poltava, Ternopil, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. More than 2,100 houses in Kyiv were left in the dark as a result of the strike.

RuAF tacair struck 18 Ukrainian towns again last night.

During the night of June 7th-8th Ukrainian forces reported shooting down a RuAF SU-35 Flanker E over Kursk Oblast. The shutdown was originally reported as a PATRIOT kill, but the UAF is now claiming a UAF F-16 shot down the Flanker. If it was an F-16, that suggests a loosening of SOPs to allow the F-16s to draw closer to the Russian border.

On the 8th Ukrainian drones struck the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula oblast, about 100 miles south of Moscow.

Ukrainian drones also struck infrastructure  targets in Cheboksary, Kazan, and Riven oblasts in Russia.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jan8 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun4 Jun9

Brent      94.71      120.90    75.58      76.69 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 65.83 66.80

WTI     92.10    119.50  71.29      73.94 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 63.84 64.89

NG       3.97        8.41      2.15      3.66 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.72 3.69

Wheat     8.52       10.71    6.17      5.37 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.39 5.49

Ruble     85        58.48    82.59    105.18 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.44 79.27

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 42.33 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.55

Urals 56.56    71.76 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.60 60.84

ESPO 78.19 N/A 71.50 70 48.90 63.23 63.97

Sokol 72.79 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 60.56 61.51

Thoughts 

As was observed by a Fellow at the Atlantic Council, the fact that there is friction over prisoner exchanges suggests things are getting worse.

The point is that the prisoner exchanges (65 already in the war), have mainly gone off smoothly. This large scale exchange, plus the return of the bodes of dead soldiers, was seines a simple, straight-froward “confidence building measure,” jargon for building up a small reservoir of trust in the other side. 

That there is verbal “sniping: now, three years into the war, suggests things are more fractious now than they were; simply stated, if they can’t readily manage an exchange of prisoners - which they have already down 65 times - what is the likelihood of more sensitive and more complicated steps?

The next meeting in Istanbul is scheduled for the 20th, and so far has not been cancelled. 

v/r pete