June 25th, 2025
Politics - NATO Summit: Trump and Zelenskyy talk
- Summit Statement
Combat Ops - More Russian gains - Straightening lines
Economics - Russian oil prices down
Weather
Kharkiv
73 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 25. Rain Thursday, more rain on Saturday, but sunny Friday morning. Daily lows in around 60, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.
Melitopol
79 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25. Thunderstorms Thursday and Saturday, but sunny on Friday, partly cloudy next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.
Kyiv
68 and cloudy, rain tonight, gusting over 35. Rain tonight and again on Thursday and Saturday, cloudy next week. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs around 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.
Politics and Diplomacy
NATO Summit should conclude in the next few hours.
President Trump made some comments, and spoke to President Zelenskyy.
Trump on Ukraine:
"They do want to have the anti missile missiles, okay. As they call them the Patriots, and we're going to see if we can make some available.
I did not discuss ceasefire with Zelensky. I just wanted to see how he was doing.
Trump on Putin:
"I’ve spoken to Putin a lot and he was actually very nice. He volunteered on - as you know - Iran. I said, ‘I don’t need help on Iran. I need help on Russia. Okay do us a favor, help us on Russia, not on Iran. But he was very nice.”
President Zelensky also commented:
"A long and meaningful meeting with President Trump. We covered all the really important issues. I thank Mr. President, thank the United States. We talked about how to achieve a ceasefire and real peace. We talked about how to protect our people. We appreciate the attention and willingness to help bring peace closer. Details to come.”
The Summit also resulted in a Declaration:
NATO Summit Declaration from The Hague
- We, the Heads of State and Government of the North Atlantic Alliance, have gathered in The Hague to reaffirm our commitment to NATO, the strongest Alliance in history, and to the transatlantic bond. We reaffirm our ironclad commitment to collective defence as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty - that an attack on one is an attack on all. We remain united and steadfast in our resolve to protect our one billion citizens, defend the Alliance, and safeguard our freedom and democracy.
- United in the face of profound security threats and challenges, in particular the long- term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security and the persistent threat of terrorism, Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence-and security-related spending by 2035 to ensure our individual and collective obligations, in accordance with Article 3 of the Washington Treaty. Our investments will ensure we have the forces, capabilities, resources, infrastructure, warfighting readiness, and resilience needed to deter and defend in line with our three core tasks of deterrence and defence, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security.
- Allies agree that this 5% commitment will comprise two essential categories of defence investment. Allies will allocate at least 3.5% of GDP annually based on the agreed definition of NATO defence expenditure by 2035 to resource core defence requirements, and to meet the NATO Capability Targets. Allies agree to submit annual plans showing a credible, incremental path to reach this goal.
And Allies will account for up to 1.5% of GDP annually to inter alia protect our critical infrastructure, defend our networks, ensure our civil preparedness and resilience, unleash innovation, and strengthen our defence industrial base. The trajectory and balance of spending under this plan will be reviewed in 2029, in light of the strategic environment and updated Capability Targets. Allies reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine, whose security contributes to ours, and, to this end, will include direct contributions towards Ukraine's defence and its defence industry when calculating Allies' defence spending. - We reaffirm our shared commitment to rapidly expand transatlantic defence industrial cooperation and to harness emerging technology and the spirit of innovation to advance our collective security. We will work to eliminate defence trade barriers among Allies and will leverage our partnerships to promote defence industrial cooperation.
- We express our appreciation for the generous hospitality extended to us by the Kingdom of the Netherlands. We look forward to our next meeting in Türkiye in 2026 followed by a meeting in Albania
Xxxxx
NATO GenSec Rutte discussed NATO countries’ plans to invest more in defense - increasing to 5% of GDP by 2035, and emphasis was placed on air defense, and ammunition stockpiles (of all types). These are the promises, it will be interesting to see who meets the 5% target.
Netherlands announced military aid for Ukraine worth 175 million euros ($203.4 million), to include 100 drone detection radars, 20 Ermine casualty evac vehicles, 80 million euros ($93 million) toward the international drone coalition.
Ground Operations
SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS
Fighting contains just south of Tetkino along the Russia Ukraine border, north-west of Sumy City, but there were no changes in the front lines.
North of Sumy City fighting continues along the edge of the Russian “buffer zone.” imagery confirmed Russian forces regained some terrain just north-west of Andriivka, land the Ukrainians re-took over the weekend. There are claims - not confirmed in imagery, that Russian forces also gained ground near Yablunivka, about 6 miles east of Andriivka.
North of Kharkiv Fighting was reported in the vicinity of Hlyboke and Vovchansk but there were no changes in the front lines.
NORTH OF THE DONETS
Fighting continued along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed changes to the front line. Russian forces remain very active north of Kupyansk, west of the Oskil River, as well as further south in the string of towns that formed the southern edge of the Russian lodgment west of Terny out to Serednie and north from there to Karpivka and to the north-west of that town.
While it has not been confirmed in imagery (which may in part be due to poor weather), it appears that the Russians are, in fact, overrunning small Ukrainian elements and pushing westward.
BAKHMUT TO TORETSK TO POKROVSK
Russian forces remain on the attack north-east of Siversk, just west of Hyrhorivka, and east of Siversk, just west of Verkhnokamyanske.
West of Bakhmut, in the area of Chasiv Yar, Russian forces pushing out of the south-west corner of Chasiv Yar have pushed nearly mile into Shevchenko, the town that abuts Chasiv Yar to the south-west. Fighting was also reported immediately to the south, about a mile east of Bila Hora.
Further south there are claims that Russian forces have seized both the southern and now northern Dyliivka (about 2 miles apart), and while unconfirmed, these are credible claims.
West of Toretsk Russian forces appear to be making progress in closing the pocket between Toretsk and the Kleban Byk reservoir. Imagery confirms Russian progress in pushing into Yablunivka, and the fight for Yablunivka has devolved to a house to house (rubble pile to rubble pile) fight. There are again credible claims of having at least pushed into Olesandro Kalynove (just west of Toretsk), as well as pushing towards Pleshivka (also west of Toretsk but just north of the Kleban Byk Reservoir. Russian forces also appear to be making small gains in fighting near Popiv Yar and Poltavka.
Just a bit further west, imagery confirmed Russian forces have control of Malynivka (about 10 miles east of Pokrovsk, along the T0504 roadway, and appear to be making progress in closing up the small pocket east of Pokrovsk, south of the roadway, and are still pushing northward, and may have reached the edge of Novotoretske (10 miles north-east of Pokrovsk).
South-west of Pokrovsk Russian forces appear to have pushed further north from Udachne, and fighting was reported in or near 20 towns in the area. In the fight for terrain just east of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, imagery confirmed Russian forces had taken Novoserhiivka (along the Solana River), and appear to have gained ground in and around the town immediately to they east, Novomykolaivka. There are no more reported Russian gains north of the Vovcha River.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
Immediately south of the Vovcha River, Russian forces, as of two days ago, had cleared any terrain south of the river as far west as the town of Zaporizhia. Unconfirmed but credible reporting now suggests that Zaporizhia and the small town of Yalta (to the west) have been overrun, and, as suggested yesterday, the little village of Zirka is the only village east of the Mokri Yaly not in Russian hands, though it would seem unlikely the Ukrainians can hold the village for long.
Fighting continues across the south but there were no consumed changes in the front line.
Imagery did confirm that a Ukrainian element conducted a raid on the east bank of the Dnepr River, near the Antonovsky bridge.
Air Operations
During the night of June 24th-June 25th Russian forces launched 71 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 32 drones, and 20 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).
Damage and casualties have been reported in Zaporizhia oblasts, but other reroots have not been collated yet.
RuAF tacair struck 12 towns.
During the night of June 23rd-June 24th Russian forces launched least 6 x ballistics missile (possible Iskander ballistic missiles), and 97 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 63 drones, and 15 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).
Damage and casualties have been reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, and Sumy oblasts.
Casualties include at least 19 killed and 293 wounded; 16 killed and 274 wounded the result of at least two ballistic missiles striking the city of Dnipro. Among the facilities directly affected but he strikes was a school, a clinic, a 47 floor apartment building, and 41 houses.
RuAF tacair struck 10 towns.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun24 Jun25
Brent 94.71 120.90 75.58 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 68.85 67.80
WTI 92.10 119.50 71.29 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 65.99 64.99
NG 3.97 8.41 2.15 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.64 3.52
Wheat 8.52 10.71 6.17 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.59 5.50
Ruble 85 58.48 82.59 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.42 78.23
Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.74 41.68
Urals 56.56 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 72.18 64.94
ESPO 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 73.48 69.14
Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 62.82 62.82
Note the drop in Urals and ESPO spot prices...
Thoughts
A little clarity on the 5% spending goal: 3.5% for defense, 1.5% for infrastructure protection, cyber defense, civil defense, industrial base, etc.
Using the numbers of a few days agate US, with a projected $44 trillion GDP in 2035 would be spending $1.5 trillion on defense and $660 billion on infrastructure, cyber, etc. The US is already meeting or exceeding most of that target.
For the rest of NATO ($31 trillion in collective GDP), that would mean (assuming every nation met the target) $1.085 trillion in defense spending and $450 billion in infrastructure, etc. Combined NATO defense spending would still roughly equal or exceed Russia’s projected $2.6 trillion GDP for 2035.
As for the Article V comment, President Trump commented that there are lots of ways to interpret Article V. I think he was being polite. It seems Article V is sometimes invoked as if it is some sort of sacred scroll. But the pertinent paragraph of Article V says is:
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
The issue is the line: “such action as it deems necessary.” So, if Article V were invoked, each individual government of the member states will, by their own respective processes, decide what actions are necessary. It is not an “automatic” response as some infer.
v/r pete
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