June 27th, 2025
Politics - Putin says NATO agreement show’s bloc’s aggression
- Zaluzhnyi vs Zelenskyy poll results, Zaluzhnyi ahead
Combat Ops - More Russian gains, Gen Syrskyi says Russian offensive stopped
- More than 300 drones strike
- Lithium deposit overrun
Weather
Kharkiv
76 and sunny, gusting to 35. Thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, sunny to partly cloudy next week. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
80 and sunny, gusting over 20. Thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, mostly sunny next week. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the low 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
70 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tonight, rain tomorrow, mostly cloudy Sunday, Monday clearing but windy. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.
Politics and Diplomacy
President Putin commented on the NATO plan to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, asserting that NATO’s increased spending shows the bloc’s aggression.
But, he noted that Russia is ready for another round of talks…
A recent poll suggests that Ambassador Zaluzhnyi (retired General) leads in a race against President Zelenskyy.
In a poll of 2,000 Ukrainian citizens, conducted between June 6th and 11th, voters were asked who they would vote for. The two largest vote getters were: 21.8% - Zaluzhnyi, 19.6% - Zelenskyy.
When then asked who they would vote for in a runoff, just between those two, Zaluzhnyi received 41.4% and Zelenskyy received 27% (25.7% would vote for neither (presumably would not vote)).
Prime Minster Orban of Hungary speaking about Ukraine’s entry into the EU and NATO ;
"Ukraine, through no fault of its own, is an undefined entity and that we do not even know what Ukraine is today and what the length of its borders is… Ukraine's membership in the EU would mean destroying ourselves. In the shortest possible time, we would be at war with Russia, and we would bring it into the territory of the EU, including Hungary.”
"We also see that they need help, but we want to help in a way that does not destroy ourselves. Ukraine's membership in the EU would mean that we would destroy ourselves. We would instantly be drawn into a war with Russia and bring it to the territory of the EU, and therefore to the territory of Hungary.”
President Trump met with President Zelenskyy during the NATO Summit and Zelenskyy later commented that he assured Trump that he supports the US perspectives on a ceasefire. They talked about air defense issues, and as noted yesterday, Trump commented that the US is looking into selling more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, joint drone production, Electronic Warfare equipment, and the US and Europe working to strengthen Ukrainian air defenses.
Ground Operations
SUMY and KHARKIV OBLASTS
Gen. Syrskyi commented yesterday that the front line in Sumy oblast (about 10 miles north of Sumy City) has stabilized, and that Ukrainian forces have repelled the Russian summer offensive “as of this week,” and that Ukrainian counter-attacks have pinned down “50,000 Russian” troops in the Sumy - Kharkiv border areas.
At the same time imagery confirmed that Russian forces have regained control of Andriivka (which the Ukrainians took back from the Russians over the weekend), and unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian forces made gains near Yablunivka, extending small gains made over the past week.
Fighting was reported at five separate sites north of Kharkiv but there were no changes in the front lines.
NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER
Fighting continues along the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains. West of Terny, in the vicinity of Ridkodub area, Russian forces counter-attacked Ukrainian forces that had pushed into the area over the past few days; unconfirmed reports claim that they retook some of the land that the Ukrainians had regained just two days ago; the situation remains confused and may take several days to sort out.
BAKHMUT TO TORETSK TO DONETSK CITY
Fighting continues north and west of Bakhmut but there were no changes to the front lines.
North of Toretsk Russian forces continue to make incremental gains - confirmed in imagery) in the vicinity of Dyliivka (the northern-most Dyliivka, the southern one is now firmly in Russian hands.)
West of Toretsk imagery also confirmed Russian forces made gains around Yablunivka, moving into the west side of that town, while also pushing north and have probably entered the southern edge of Oleksandro Kalynove
Fighting continues east and west and south-west of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines, though multiple claims of gains by Russian forces, particularly to the south west.
South-west of Pokrovsk Russian forces north of the Vovcha River remain east of the border of Dnipropetrovsk (south of the Vovcha River, Donetsk Oblast extends westward another 14 miles, the border following the Vovcha River). The Russian line now runs from Horikhove due south to the western end of Oleksivka and then west into Zelenyi Kut. From Horikhove north the front line veers west to the oblast border (about a mile) and then follows the border north to the southern edge of the town of Muravka, just short of the Solana River. Fighting is reported in or near essentially every town along that line, with small pieces of terrain - advances to the next tree line or wind break - being “exchanged” on a regular basis.
SOUTHERN UKRAINE
South of the Vovcha River Russian forces have pushed west and appear to be engaged with Ukrainian forces on the edge of the small village of Zirka, the last village east of the Mokri Yaly River not controlled by Russian forces. Further south Russian forces continue to press westward on the Komar to Novopil line and appear to have gained ground just north of Shevchenko, but this has not been confirmed.
Multiple sources have also confirmed that Russian forces now control the town of Shevchenko itself (4 miles south-west of Vesele); the site is estimated to contain 1.2 million tons of recoverable lithium. Lithium is currently selling at $61,000 per ton, so the nominal value of this deposit is a bit more than $70 billion.
Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces pushing north have pushed into the center of the town of Malynivka (about 7 to 8 miles east of Hulyaipole). The town, which had a population of about 850 before the war, lies in the center of a good deal of farmland and is accessed only through a network of secondary - mostly dirt - roads.
Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces continue to conduct recon across the Dnepr River into Kherson as well as raids on the islands in the lower Dnepr River.
Air Operations
During the night of June 26th-June 27th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Khinzhal ballistic missiles, 6 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 363 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 211 drones and 6 cruise missiles, and 148 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Two Khinzhal missiles struck Dnipro City in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a ballistic missile strike (of unknown type) was reported in Sumy City.
Casualties include at least 4 killed and 17 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck 5 towns.
During the night of June 25th-June 26th Russian forces launched 41 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 8 drones, and 16 drones were also “lost” (brought down by EW).
Damage was reported in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts.
RuAF tacair struck 21 towns.
Ukrainian reports note wider Russian use of “mother drones” carrying multiple FPV drones.
The French daily Le Monde reports that Russia launched 3,000 Shahed drones so far this month, and that is it producing all of its Shaheds:
"Russia can afford these continuous volleys because it has significantly increased its production capacity. Originally imported from Iran, this kamikaze drone no longer has much in common with Iran, as it is now produced in the Russian Federation. Unprecedentedly, it is assembled by African hands, mainly from Uganda, Mali, Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Botswana, Zimbabwe.”
Economic Reporting
Feb22 Jun10-22Jun8-23 Feb7 Mar4 Apr8 May8 Jun9 Jun26 Jun27
Brent 94.71 120.90 75.58 74.89 70.00 64.80 61.93 66.80 67.74 68.10
WTI 92.10 119.50 71.29 71.17 66.97 61.37 59.00 64.89 65.06 65.61
NG 3.97 8.41 2.15 3.37 4.44 3.69 3.64 3.69 3.38 3.60
Wheat 8.52 10.71 6.17 5.86 5.37 5.38 5.34 5.49 5.44 5.42
Ruble 85 58.48 82.59 96.88 89.50 86.24 82.45 79.27 78.67 78.73
Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 - 36.4 41.46 41.40 41.18 41.55 41.55 41.56 41.73
Urals 56.56 68.32 65.49 52.76 54.13 60.84 64.26 63.77
ESPO 71.50 70 48.90 63.97 69.68 69.73
Sokol 70.92 67.20 61.42 57.39 61.51 62.76 62.84
Thoughts
Syrskyi’s comment of 50,000 troops “pinned down” is a bit of an exaggeration, as there were perhaps half that number is border guard forces in the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts (the border guard increased in size early in the war) and they will be there no matter what. As for whether the Russians really were, or are, conducting a summer offensive, there is an argument that the real offensive is between Bakhmut and Pokrovsk.
Meanwhile, Syrskyi ordered the building of defensive lines in Sumy oblast, which is necessary, though he appears to be playing catch-up.
As for a Russian summer offensive, the ROK National Intelligence Service (NIS - a CIA equivalent) reports that North Korea is receiving technical support from Russia in exchange for ammunition and missiles and, reportedly, they are discussing a large deployment of forces onto Ukrainian soil to support an offensive to begin in the July - August time frame.
If, in fact they were going to support an offensive in July, troops would need to be moving already. Of course, they could also be considered as the strategic reserve, moving to Russia in July, and, after some more training, rotating into the offensive as Russian units rotate out, or moving to less active positions on the front line to let Russian units be shifted to the offensive.
Or it could be that North Korea is looking for some sort of concessions from the ROK and the US.
Or this could all merely be conjecture on the part of the ROK NIS, based on weak intelligence.
That said, it certainly is likely that the idea of more NK troops providing support has been discussed by the Russians and North Koreans. And the idea solves several problems for each side: It gives North Korea a means to keep troops busy as well as getting them some very real experience; NK gains for technology and oil (and probably food) and some currency.
Russia gains ammunition, missiles and most importantly, soldiers. From the beginning, Russia’s one concern has been sustaining its manpower pool as it fights a war of attrition. As noted 3 years ago, if Putin can solve his manpower problems, he wins.
v/r pete
