December 20th, 2024
Ground Ops - Russia gains south of Pokrovsk
- Russia gains around Velyka Novosilke, Sukhi Yaly River
Politics - Fico vs Zelenskyy
Weather
Kharkiv
43 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain starting early tomorrow morning, continuing through Monday. Mostly cloudy next week. Temperatures will see lows in the low 30s and highs in the upper 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
45 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy on Saturday and for the next week, rain on Sunday and into Monday morning. Daily highs in the low 40s, lows in the upper 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
39 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 25. Rain later tonight, mostly cloudy for the next week. Temperatures in the upper 30s tomorrow, dropping below freezing by midnight, and in the mid 20s until early Tuesday morning, then back into the 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Ground Operations
Kursk Salient
Russian forces continue to slowly gain ground on both the east and west sides of the salient, with imagery confirming that Russians forces are now east of Novoivnovka, creating a small salient into the western perimeter, about 5 miles north of the Ukrainian border. At the same time Russian forces on the eastern perimeter continue to apply pressure just south of Makhnovka. This effort seeks to penetrate about 3 miles to the north-west and cut the southern-most of the two ground lines of communication (GLOC) that supplies the Kursk salient.
North of Kharkiv
Fighting continues in the two small salients north of Kharkiv, but there are no reports of any change in the front line.
North of the Donets River
Ukrainian reporting notes that Ukrainian forces in the vicinity of Dvorichna (on the west Bank of the Oskil River, north-east of Kupyansk about 10 miles) have withdrawn westward along the P79 roadway, though it isn't clear exactly how far they have withdrawn. Russian forces meanwhile have apparently moved into the town and have taken some high ground immediately south of the town. There is a small wood and some rock outcropping just south of the town, between the river and roadway, that is about 150 feet higher than the surrounding terrain and the Russians appear to have taken control of this site; the land to the south and west is all manicured farmland with the first defendable position being more woods about 1.5 miles to the south-west, or the Ukrainians could back into the town of Zapadne about 3 miles to the south-west.
Further south, west of Svatove, Russian forces made gains on the two towns of Kruhlyakivka and Zahryzove, along the Oskil River, just opposite Senkove. Russian sources are also reporting Russian gains just east of these towns, with Russian forces pressing further south and south-west from the town of Lozova.
Fighting was also reported in the Serebrianske forest, south-west of Kreminna.
Bakhmut
Fighting continues east and south-east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.
Ukrainian and Russian forces traded small patches of terrain in the center of Chasiv Yar, specifically in the ceramic plant, with Ukrainian forces gaining ground inside the plant yesterday. At the same time Russian forces continued operations around Chasiv Yar, and may have picked up a small slice of terrain on the south side of the town.
Russian forces made marginal gains in southern Toretsk, but as to be expected, the reporting on fighting inside these towns in contradictory and can and does change from one end of the day to another as fighting see-saws back and forth between two streets and the houses and apartments (ruins) on those streets.
That said, this is currently looking much like other Russian efforts in these larger towns over the past 18 months, a series of slow, and deliberate assaults and artillery fire to reduce the strong points. And, as noted before, when the Russians encounter a really hard point, they use a FAB 500 (1100 kb) bomb to drop the building.
Donetsk City
There were no confirmed gains immediately east of Pokrovsk. To the south, however, Russian forces continue to move forward, and have made small gains on several towns immediately south-west of Pokrovsk (Shevchenko, Pishchane, Solone, and Novovasilivka), and then south from that last town, pushing north-west of Novoolenivka, and pushing into the northern edge of that town.
On the north end of this activity Russian forces are now less than 2 miles from Pokrovsk.
Further to the south and south-east, Russian forces continue to push west from the area just north of the Kurakhove reservoir, but appear to have made little progress inside Kurakhove itself. Russian bloggers assert that Russian forces now control the center of Kurakhove but there is currently no evidence to support that.
However, further south, the Sukhi Yaly River area appears to be now firmly in Russian hands and the towns of Uspenivka, Kostiantynopolske, Sukhi Yaly, and Zeoenivka are now all being cleared out. The Ukrainian General Staff states that no Ukrainian forces were trapped in any of these towns, though this is disputed in the blogosphere. If that is correct, then the Ukrainian forces have obviously withdrawn along the N15 Roadway. It remains to be seen how long the Ukrainian units in Kurakhove can hold out without units on their right flank. And, about 10 miles west of Kurakhove Russian units are pressing northward and are less than 1.5 miles from the N15 roadway, the main GLOC into and out of Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces need to keep that road open as long as there are troops in Kurakhove.
Further south, Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have taken Novyi Komar and Rozdolne (respectively north and west of Velyka Novosilke (VN), and are astride the GLOCs out of VN. Slightly warmer weather and rain means any effort to support VN, or any attempt to withdraw from VN will mainly be confined to the roads, and across field movement will be slow and difficult. It would seem the fight for VN - or the Ukrainian withdrawal - may take place sooner than expected.
Southern Ukraine
Russian forces made small advances near Novoandrivka (just south of Orikhiv), and the UGS reported fighting taking place a bit more than a mile from that town. More fighting was also reported on the islands at the mouth of the Dnepr river, and Russian artillery engaged in a good deal of fire into Kherson, with Ukrainian General Staff reporting that more than 1,000 rounds of howitzer fires was record in less than 40 minutes. Casualties so far are 2 killed and 11 wounded.
Air Operations
On the 20th, during morning rush hour, Russian forces launched a missile strike on the Kyiv area. The strike included a mix of 8 Isknader and Kinzhal ballistic misses and more than 60 x Shahed drones.
At least one person has been killed and 13 wounded.
The UAF claimed it shot down 5 missiles and 40 drones. A further 20 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW).
On the night of the 18th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 85 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 45 drones and 40 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). The Ukrainian government reported that the missiles struck civilian and municipal buildings in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk; Ukrainian news sources reported strikes on the power grid.
Ukrainian drones struck the Novoshaktinsk oil refinery in the Rostov area on the night of the 18th, causing a fire that temporarily shut down the refinery, but it is apparently once again operating. The strike consisted of 3 missiles (type unknown) and 30+ drones; the number of hits was not reported.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported yesterday that a Russian resistance element lit off several fuel trucks at a military base in Novosibirsk, not further identified.
Politics and Diplomacy
Slovak Prime Minister Fico suggested his country is facing a gas crisis because of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy.
"We are demonstrably facing a gas crisis thanks to President Zelenskyy.”
On December 31st the Russian gas company GazProm will end shipment of gas to Europe through pipes that cross Ukraine. This will end GazProm deliveries to Europe. Others are filling in (a pipeline from Azerbaijan, LNG sales for the US, etc.) , but these are more expensive sources than GazProm.
Fico later said that Slovakia will need to consider reciprocal measures. He had talked to Zelenskyy earlier:
"We have differences on the issue of gas transit through Ukraine. I asked him whether he would be ready to transit other gas besides Russian gas…He asked if we could imagine paying for gas that finances the war.”
In other energy news, yesterday, following what have been termed “technical problems,” Russia suspended shipment of oil through the Druzhba pipeline, which is one if the major supplies of oil to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
Reports suggest a technical problem at the pumping station in Unecha, Bryansk Oblast (just north of Ukraine). Early reports suggest that the pipeline will be down for at least 1 or 2 days but may be out as along as 2 weeks.
Economic Reporting
Feb 22 Mar 7 Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec19 Dec20
Brent 94.71 119.50 120.90 75.58 80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 72.67 72.18
WTI 92.10 123.80 119.50 71.29 75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 70.10 68.66
NG 3.97 4.45 8.41 2.15 2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.55 3.65
Wheat 8.52 12.94 10.71 6.17 6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.32 5.35
Ruble 85 145.70 58.48 82.59 88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 103.50 102.60
Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.92 41.87
Urals 56.56 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 68.50 68.50
ESPO 65 77 77 77 74.17 73.68
Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 67.14 66.57
Thoughts
Two thoughts:
First, Russian ground forces continue their slow but deliberate churn through the Ukrainian defenses. The progress south of the Pokrovsk salient is slow but steady and the Ukrainian forces, outside of the larger towns, are having a difficult time stopping them. This is different from a year ago where everything was a very slow grind and the Ukrainian forces were able dig in and hold and the Russian advances came to complete stops except in a just one or two spots. It would seem the Russians have learned and have improved their ground combat arms, one area of which has been a better use of tactical aircraft strikes with smart glide bombs.
Second, Kyiv seems to have forgotten Churchill’s cautionary comment that the only thing worse than fighting a war with allies is fighting a war without allies.
From Ukraine’s perspective, survival is contingent on NATO membership. But there is no entrance into NATO unless every NATO country agrees - it has to be unanimous. At this point, Hungary and Slovakia appear as if they won’t agree to Ukraine’s entry into NATO any time in this century. Letting that sort of animus fester is not going to help Ukraine’s situation. Zelenskyy needs to get Fico (and Orban of Hungary) if not clearly on Ukraine’s side, at least not increasingly opposed to Ukraine. If that means a pipeline that provides cash to Putin, then that’s the cost of doing business.
But this dispute provides a wonderful opportunity for Putin and his SVR. Russia can be counted on to target these seams between Ukraine and various European nations; meanwhile, Zelenskyy has to close up these seams.
v/r pete
